Input/Output vs. Systemic Frameworks
Working in EdTech alongside a mix of industry executives and lifelong educators has taught me many lessons. But there is one specific framework that emerged from those rooms—one that continues to shape how I view the actual impact of education.
The Trouble with Inputs and Outputs
In many business functions, the math is comforting. You have clear inputs and clear outputs, which makes every strategic bet feel like a simple equation.
Take acquisition marketing: new customers are usually a reasonably predictable function of spend and tactics. Or look at customer service: historical call volume allows you to predict peak season needs and dictate staffing levels with surgical precision. While actual performance always varies, these established patterns provide a cozy sense of predictability. You know the risk profile before you place the bet.
But then you get into Education or Retention Marketing, and the math breaks.
In these worlds, impact isn't a linear function. Educational outcomes—both attainment and persistence—are messy. They are dependent on an individual’s internal integration of logic, emotion, worldview, and mindset. While we have years of research providing some "broad stroke" shortcuts, the relationship between investment and outcome can’t be squeezed into a standard input/output spreadsheet.
When you try to force it, you usually end up in a "WTF" conundrum: staring at data that doesn't make sense because the human element refused to act like a variable.
The Framework: Moving from Linear to Systemic
I propose a shift in how we visualize this challenge. Instead of a straight line from A to B, think of it as a system of interlocking gears.
The simple truth is that these factors constantly interplay to drive results. If you focus on one gear (like "Curriculum") without analyzing the rest of the system (like "Student Mindset" or "Support Structures"), you are unlikely to generate a clear outcome.
This is why "it worked here but not there," or "it worked once but never again." When we treat a systemic problem like a linear one, we make decisions with less clarity and more frustration. The common reaction is to abandon the project entirely because we can’t see where to iterate.
And yet, the pressure to perform remains urgent. To move forward, we have to stop looking for the "input" button and start looking at how the gears are actually meshing.
